Good morning
Oops, I did it again! I went to play golf a few weeks ago at a charity event. I actually had fun for a change as we met some sports celebrities and all I wanted to do was ask them what they thought about Star athletes promoting gambling sites. But I didn’t and just recently the Ontario Gaming Commission bans Celebrities from promoting sports betting by making it illegal because it influences minors toward a dreadful sickness of gambling, Dah!!!
Regardless of the issue, not speaking my mind, I was starving. Personally, I would consider myself a strong determined individual but when it comes to food and the things I like (usually the bad stuff that isn’t good for you) I fall into temptation, especially for food. I felt like I was possessed and I ate things I shouldn’t have. Ultimately, a price was paid as inflammation gripped my right knee, blowing up almost to double its counterpart size. Isn’t it funny how inflammation and inflation are totally different words but cause the same effect?
The home stretch of summer is upon us as the markets await with anticipation the decision coming from the Federal Reserve in September. Will they continue to raise rates in this inflationary environment or refrain?
After the Jolts Job Openings Report showed a substantial decrease in Job openings down to 8.82Mil from expected (9.46Mil), there is concern that the American economy is going to slow down and slip into a recession. Many believe we have already been in a prolonged downturn as data is skewed to reflect progress to the benefit of an Administration that has not been on the ball with many issues. They expect people to be patient yet they have deliberately provided the fodder for the situation the world is presently in.
How do we damper the Federal Reserve’s contemplation of raising rates in September? Just look at the GDP number down to 2.1% in Q2 down from (2.4%) previous. Yet Personal Consumption increases (2.5%), excluding Food and Energy it increases (3.7%) as inflation is still raging. This also shows how effective the manipulation of Oil can drastically alter the inflation reading.
Nonetheless, the anticipation for higher interest rates, by words alone, is seeing the USD Index explode in recent weeks above the 105.0 level. They keep everyone guessing to keep the USD relevant. Consequently, Precious Metals fell on this USD-renewed uptick while currencies slipped.
Yesterday the Bank of Canada (BOC) announced they will leave interest rates unchanged, the Bank Rate remains at 5%. Yet they keep a tone of bravado by seemingly worrying about underlining inflation. I have said many times that Inflation will only come under control if the government stops all the erroneous spending and the BOC stops printing money.
What they are saying and doing aren’t for the benefit of people as the cracks are starting to show. Canadian GDP growth was higher in 2018 in comparison to where we are in 2023. See the chart.

They are leaving the door open to further rate hikes come October regardless of being empathetic of the damage being done to a majority of citizens.
On the other side of the Atlantic, The ECB is also expected to raise rates for the final time this year despite a contraction in the economy. They refer to this as a minor contraction in a disinflationary process. Isolating Germany alone, the economic activity has now declined steadily over a 3-year period. Contraction in GDP is also a concern as they blame the Chinese slowdown for their issues. How can things get better when the costs of goods are rising exponentially and people aren’t making ends meet? Something has to give as the equilibrium is about to divert to extremes.
Meanwhile, Oil is booming above $87/B as Russia and Saudi Arabia announce production cuts. Note that Saudi Arabia recently joined the BRICKS Nations, a slap in the face to the Americans and USD-dominated payments. Consequently, Precious Metals retracts on this mirage of USD strength as Gold heads toward $1900/oz and Silver toward $23/oz. The Canadian Dollar slips toward 0.73 cents as the outlook for the economy dampens.
Click below to get a perspective on where Canada is heading, I am sure no one living here will be amused;
https://youtu.be/XomvuLPiTWM
I think I love you!