Welcome to the start of a new year, which looks like it will be intriguing as we approach the January 20th inauguration of the newly elected and former President, Donald Trump. The markets will remain subdued as they lay to rest the 100-year-old, ex-President Jimmy Carter who got the chance to cast his vote before departing.

Since his decisive victory, the USD Index, a measurement of USD strength or weakness, has been on an upward trajectory. It has catapulted above the 109.0 level, anticipating a new direction to make America great again. 

There has been a lot of noise about tariffs, the annexation of Greenland, The Panama Canal and even Canada becoming the 51st State. He has even suggested changing the name of The Gulf of Mexico to The Gulf of America, eliminating Daylight savings time this coming spring. Could it be symbolic to reflect on stepping forward and never looking back? Almost everything he says gets scrutinized and in many cases misinterpreted to paint him in a negative light that isn’t very appealing as such he has been dubbed “The Teflon Don”. 

It is his second opportunity to introduce a new direction for not only America but a template for the world. The directive will be initiated by increasing the production of Oil and gas. The green energy failure of overly expensive alternatives will give way to cheaper sources. This will be a catalyst to bring down the cost of consumer goods and keep inflation under control. 

The next step will be to re-negotiate trade deals to support his intiatives. While many countries over the last four (4) years have followed a globalist and elitist agenda, the damage of mass illegal migration has contributed to enormous strains and chaos in many Western countries. Notably, increased crime rates, housing shortages, explosive inflation coupled with higher taxation, affordability issues, and witnessing tent cities pop up across North America. The high cost of living has been devastating to many families causing many social dilemmas, including drug addiction and suicides. Finally, don’t forget to mention the number of wars that broke out and the Billions of dollars left behind in Afghanistan, empowering an adversary.

Consequently, for people who consider his barking about the American economy being taken advantage of, attention may be heightened. This time around, his bark might bite. The discussion of tariffs alone has instigated a tightening of security along the Canadian border initiated by Alberta and Ontario. Since the Canadian Federal Government is in limbo, provinces have had to take the initiative. 

Actions always speak louder than words, the key is to make the economies of the world stronger so that commerce and fairness can prevail. Any thoughts of an alternative benchmark currency to compete against the USD, like the BRICKS nations initiative, will be met with 100% tariffs for any or all goods imported from these nations. The key is to start reducing the enormous deficit of $34 trillion and possibly eliminating Central Bankers from their thievery. 

Yesterday morning, German Retail Sales were up 2.5% YoY versus expected (1.9%), yet Factory Orders fell <5.4%> in November vs 0% expected. Europe will be in for a much rougher time especially with energy demand and supply restrictions due to the war in Ukraine. Germany is the pulse of the European Union and when the biggest employer, Volkswagen, cuts 10% of its workforce, it has ripple effects.

In Canada, the discussion of tariffs has made the PM start gophering as he tries to find a hole to hide in. The threats are having the effect of weakening the CAD$ as it hovers in the 0.69 cent range. The surge in Oil plus the announcement of Trudeau’s resignation gave the Canadian Dollar a little boost as it temporarily hit the 0.70 cent range. Unfortunately, he remains PM as he prorogued parliament leaving the country in limbo. When and if the new government comes into power, work will be much more difficult to salvage a sinking ship. With the Canadian GDP slipping fast and the country reaching Third World Status, it will take a miracle to turn this economic disaster around from complete incompetence.

The CAD$ will continue to falter until the Canadian Economy gets back on track and the flow of investment money finds its way back into the country. The deficit, will be an obstacle for the Canadian Dollar, therefore buy on dips. The economy is sputtering in Canada, look for interest rates to tumble even further into the New Year. As a result, those who suffered from a variable-rate mortgage could see substantial savings restored. Hopefully, still be gainfully employed to maintain their payments. Tackle the debt with the savings!

Lastly, Oil tested the USD$74/B level temporarily and is poised to fall once the pump baby pump starts. Precious Metals continue to rise, with Gold toward the USD$2700/oz level and Silver above the USD$30/oz level. On the other hand, Bitcoin surpassed the USD$102k/coin level once Blackrock bought on the dip. What do they know that the rest of us don’t? It’s back in the USD92k/coin range this morning.  In the end, we are just pawns in the game of life, I saw an interesting clip from 1942 and a visionary’s view of a World Map, it makes one wonder what’s going on in this world.