Sometimes, my best ideas come to me when I sleep. Recently, I woke up from sleep, and a creative idea came to mind. It was so simple that I didn’t write it down on the notepad beside my bed, thinking that it was so easy I would remember. After falling back to sleep, I got up, and I couldn’t remember the thought and still can’t recall it. Maybe I need more vitamin D from the wild mushrooms. 

Speaking about mushrooms, the weather has been so mild since September that there haven’t been any yet. As Americans look forward to their most prized holiday, Thanksgiving next week, the tone for the Christmas shopping season starts with  Black Friday savings and Cyber Monday bonanzas becoming frenzies for shoppers. Ultimately, all those items end up in garage sales like the abs roller and steamer that still litter my site-line in the family room. One would think, I would have a six-pack and wrinkle-free clothes to wear but it’s just not the case.  

The previous week ended with USA Retail Sales up 0.4% vs. expected (0.3%). But the real concern was the upward revision which showed Retail Sales were actually up (0.8%) from the stated(0.4%) in the previous month. Though concerning, the Fed continues to give the impression of ‘what’s the rush in lowering rates’ when inflation is rising like my blood pressure. I hope this transition of power goes smoothly. 

Speaking of surprises, Canadian Consumer Pricing a measurement of inflation rose to 2% in October vs (1.6%) in September. This temporarily boosted the Canadian Dollar as if questioning the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) policy if they will continue to lower interest rates. I don’t think they have a choice. Buy USD on dips!

In Canada, the likelihood of another rate cut has already been factored in. As a result, the Canadian Dollar is experiencing tremendous headwinds because rates are falling more rapidly in Canada than they are in the USA. Therefore, since the interest rate differential between the countries widens, the Canadian dollar weakens. Investment money flows to where higher yields can be achieved. Especially by large investment firms and fund holders with liquidity. 

In the States, Housing Starts plunged 3.1% in October vs a drop of <1.9%> in September. Consequently Building Permits were also down <0.6%> after a drop of <3.1%> revised from <2.9%> in September. This will be an interesting barometer for measuring the success of the new Trump Administration progress. Mind you, with all the celebrities expected to leave and vacate their properties, they might not need to build homes, just renovate.

In Europe, another rate cut is expected also putting added pressure on the currency to fall even further against the USD. The Euro has presently hit a triple bottom and once this technical level is broken, new lows will result. Their economic woes are profound as US Policy and the war in Ukraine have caused havoc for most Europeans. 

Meanwhile, the Fed wants to express its independence more prominently now that Trump has won the Presidency. A cause for concern is the Trump stimulus package for companies and households. Inflation could rise exponentially, combined with tariffs against China, Canada and Europe. I am not surprised by their reaction or concern but I ask why weren’t they overly pre-emptive when they along with all the other central bankers continued to print money and support massive government debt. The bankers win either way, that is until they don’t exist any longer. 

This week is also set for a G20 event to discuss Ukraine. Keep in mind the Biden Administration has authorized long-range missiles able to target locations within Russia and they are presently using them. The Russian response is clear;