I wanted to start by recounting a wonderful experience I had in the early part of the year 2002. Pope John Paul II, came to Toronto for World Youth Day. My family and I, took in (9) young adults and provided them shelter and meals for the whole week. I encouraged people and neighbours to get involved, open their doors and witness history in the making. The Military base in Downsview, Ontario saw dignitaries arrive via helicopters to listen to his speech and mass on the Sunday. One thing I can’t forget after a few days of rain, once the Pope arrived the skies lit up with sunshine and the winds calmed down as if by miracle. 

It might have been the most incredible, peaceful time in this city. So many good things happened, amazing stories and experiences. Today, the world is entering a pivotal moment with focus landing on the United States. The pending November 5th election outcome will vertebrate around the world. Being in the present is an actual gift to be living through. The game of smoke and mirrors is in play making Halloween seem like child’s play. I just have a feeling that something ominous is brewing which could jeopardize the election. Be prepared to see things never imagined.

A whirlwind of economic data started with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for America. It came in at 2.8% vs expected (3%). Then came ADP (Private Sector Employment) surprisingly higher 233k vs expected (115k).  Today, Initial Jobless Claims are up at 216K vs the previous week (228K). US Core PCE Inflation remains stubbornly high at 2.7% vs expected (2.6%). The impact of the Federal Reserve and its policy decisions directly affect the performance of the markets in general. They are the Kingpin as the whole world takes notice.                    Click below to understand a little more about how the decisions made affect the economies;

The power of the Fed

https://youtube.com/shorts/1revVUmMg08?si=3lo0MXFhqhuV536Z

In Germany, the barometer for Europe in general, GDP was up marginally but underlying inflation is seen rising. This is forcing the manufacturing base to real issues, combined with Russian sanctions, the closing of automotive plants is causing real concerns as the demand for vehicles is imploding. Click below to grasp the real crisis unfolding and potentially carrying over to North America. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIzsUPBuyFE Germany claiming economic disaster 

https://youtu.be/R-gP2ychcY4 Germany closing plants 

Their biggest employer VolksWagon (VM) is cutting thousands of jobs and those lucky to keep their jobs will get a 10% wage cut plus no benefits or bonuses. Sign of the times when Socialists rule. Nonetheless, the USD Index remains firm around the 104.0 level. Precious Metals had a strong week as Gold hit another record high close to USD$2800/oz. On the other hand, Silver tested USD$34/oz, yet today we see some profit taking. Oil remains below the $70/B level. As alluded to in the first video, when factory capacity utilization dips, the price of oil dips simply because there is less demand.

Inflation has taken its toll as costs have risen between 25-50%, from the rise in the cost of energy, materials and employees. It becomes next to impossible to compete when the cost of production exceeds profitability.  It leaves the company no alternative but to cut their losses. China now has a massive cost advantage able to dump its product into established markets without consequences. Tariffs will balance the playing field and bring respect back to the worker. Globalization has failed miserably, after being shoved down the throats of citizens, not for their benefit but for the benefit of Corporate profits, mainly of multinationals. 

Though the Central Banks give us the impression that Inflation is under control, prices haven’t rolled back. The measurement is only from one period to the next. As I mentioned many times before, the biggest variable in the inflation calculation is the price of energy. All of a sudden down the stretch run of an election drilling has become as popular as fracking, another reason contributing to the downward pressure of inflation and pricing. Again, the smoke and mirrors are at play, providing a false sense of reality that will not be sustainable.