Good morning,
This morning, I woke up a little dazed and confused because everything that is happening in this world today seems to be against the morals and values I grew up adhering to. As a parent, I thought I did a great job guiding my own children. Unfortunately, the influence of others especially within schools, institutions and media has become so powerful that they not only bring confusion to your family values but actual doubt by questioning the very principles that set people apart. Nonetheless, like my good friend once said, it all starts at home and you are, what you are taught. It takes strength and discipline to manage the psychological minefield of what we call life.
Speaking of psychology, the Central Bankers continue to feed us their point of view that may not necessarily be the appropriate guidance for the situation we find ourselves in. There are diverse trends shaping up around the globe.
It was the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s decision that kept the USD Index heightened close to the 104.0 level for a prolonged period of time. The drop in the key inflation number CPI fell to 4% in May vs expected (4.1%). As a result, it became a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to temporarily halt the rise in interest rates, taking a wait-and-see approach yet leaving the door open to continue to be vigilant against inflation.
Keep in mind, inflation will not stay under control until Governments cut back on spending and central bankers stop printing unlimited amounts of cash. That’s just a fact, Jack!
Meanwhile, after Canadian Unemployment Rate rose to 5.2% in May vs the expected (5.1%). The BOC increased rates by 0.25% which will further exacerbate the fire of fewer jobs and more debt. For those with plenty, they can weather the storm. But for those struggling, be concerned. Another rate hike would definitely cause extreme pain to families, individuals and not to mention the economy. Decisions will need to be made to alter lifestyles and probably choose where to live. From becoming an owner to a renter or downsizing to keep life affordable.
Nonetheless, the Cad$ continues to rise as a function of USD weakness. The USD Index slips toward the 102.0 level, due to a combination of winding down from the Debt-Ceiling drama and the decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB increased rates by 0.25% with another rate likely in July. An economy ravaged by even higher inflation and a war on the brink of turning nuclear could spell disaster, either way, you slice it. A no-win situation for the People! They are basing their actions on the increased cost of wages as a guide. In reality, no one wants to work and higher wages are needed as an incentive. It’s like bribery to get employees as I hear many business owners complaining about the need for workers.
Lastly, a slew of numbers was presented today
- New York Empire State Mfg Index Jumps to 6.6 in June vs <15.1> expected
- US Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index declines <13.7> in June vs <14> expected
- Jobless Claims remain heightened at 262k unchanged expected (249k)
- US Retail Sales up (0.3%) in May vs <0.1%> expected
- US Industrial Production slips (0.2%) in May be expected (+0.1%)
Meanwhile, Precious Metals start to appreciate as Gold is testing $1960/oz and Silver approaching $24/oz. The cad$ is soaring toward the 0.7550 level approaching yearly highs based on USD weakness and Oil back above $70/B. Keep in mind every dog has its day. The Euro continues to appreciate vs the USD and volatility will continue unabated.
I think I love you!