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The Currency Korner        
By -The FX Specialist-
Philip J. Magnoli

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FX Specialist Insight
-brought to you by Philip J. Magnoli
 An expression of thought; May 18, 2023
——–The Currency Korner——–

The Way I See Things

Volume 5 Issue 3

“Buy on the rumour, sell on the fact.”                                  
– Experience from some wise guy

 

Good morning,

First of all, Happy Belated Mother’s Day, to the most important treasure amongst us. Mothers, are the strongest people on earth, caring, loving and nurturing. Most with their best intentions for the well-being of their offspring. A Mother is also protective and in most instances, she would sacrifice herself for the safety of her own without a second thought.

Since, the passing of my Father, there has definitely been a void in our family home. Though his spirit remains embedded within us, it is very difficult to fill his shoes. Nonetheless, my siblings and families got together to share a  meal and beehive to prepare the garden for planting. It was a gift to our Mom, to display our appreciation and gratitude for all she has done for us.

Nonetheless, love makes the world go round but in today’s reality, the last three years especially have been filled with anxiety, combined with fear of the unknown. Like a military psychological game imposed on the masses creating a division amongst people of race, colour creed and economic standing based on monetary status. A division in classes seems as if it is intentional as those that want to play god with our lives try to control everything we say or do.

Meanwhile, the debt ceiling debate remains heightened, they are still far apart on any resolution. One side wants complete autonomy, while the other side wants to correlate the increases with budget cuts where needed. As a result, the USD Index broke above the 103.0 level decisively this morning. The effects on the economy from the aggressive stance of rising rates remain in the pipeline as the focus is to curb inflation. The best way to achieve this is also by bringing down the price of oil which dipped toward $69/B this week. It demonstrates how Central Bankers have effectively manipulated results to make it seem their monetary policies are working. 

In Canada, the markets were anticipating much improved CPI data, a barometer of inflation. Expectations were to show a huge dent in inflation. Yet inflation still poked its ugly head as CPI rose to 4.4% from the previous 19-month low of (4.3%) and well above the forecast Y/Y (4.0%), remaining steadfastly stubborn.

It will not subside until government spending is reduced and the monetary supply tightens simultaneously. The manipulation of variables is ideal to come to a desired conclusion. The price of Oil, the largest component in the determination of inflation has seen a 30% reduction over the last year. Consequently, the price of borrowing, utilities costs, and food, have more than doubled in certain instances. As a result, forcing individuals to make drastic changes in their accustomed lifestyles.

In the lead-up to the disappointing numbers in Canadian CPI data, as I mentioned previously, we witnessed the old saying, “Buy on the rumour, Sell on the fact”, scenario. Specifically with respect to those looking to buy USD. I am no guru, just have seen it too many times before. Nonetheless, could’ve, should’ve, would’ve is in the past and now we face reality. USA Housing Starts rose 2.2% in April but Building Permits fall 1.5%. US Retails Sales were up 0.4% but below the expected (0.7%) in April.  The future looks a little bleaker as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada will look to ease their aggressive interest rate increases despite the heightened read on inflation.

Hopefully, a resolution to the Debt Ceiling fiasco will come sooner than later to ease the drama and associated anxieties. After all, Janet Yellen,  unequivocally states that the U.S. could run out of money by June 1st. They cannot afford to not make a deal, otherwise, it will be doomsday for too many.

On the other hand, the ECB will continue to raise rates to play catch up with North America, probably sending their economy into a tailspin as well.  Precious Metals spiral with USD strength. as Gold dips below the $ 1970s/oz range and Silver in the $23/oz vicinity. The Canadian Dollar remains in the 0.74 cent range and will continue to be a reflection of USD strength or weakness.

Lastly, USA Jobless Claims came in at 242k vs expected (254k) while US Philadelphia Mfg Index shows improvement to <-10.4> in May vs <-19.8> expected. In my eyes, it’s still negative but just like in real estate they always try to put a positive spin on a square peg.  

 

Pass it on as I am always available to provide the most advanced foreign exchange services and knowledge, efficiency, expertise, and above all integrity. Referrals are welcomed and very much appreciated.
… Don’t Forgetta bout Me!!!!

Foreign Exchange Service is my Specialty.
Direct# 416-992-7765

Contact Me Direct via email at phil@aloris.ca

Don’t Forgettaa bout Me!!!!

Sincerely,
Philip Magnoli – The FX Specialist-

Direct:     416-992-7765 
Email:    phil@aloris.ca          

Opinions expressed within are that of the author alone and do not reflect in any, way, shape, or form, any Company I choose to associate myself with. This is the intellectual property of Magnoli Financial Services Corp. www.donfilippo.ca 

 

 
 
 

 
 
 

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