Good morning,
After some gorgeous summer-like days most of us shed the extra layers of clothing, exposed ourselves to the sun and were blessed with a little extra vitamin D. It felt as if Mother Nature caressed us gently, leaving our faces with a radiant glow. I felt energized, taking it upon myself to get a head start on the spring cleaning. I pruned the trees and even planted some peas as well as beans. I thought winter was over and turned off the furnace, thinking I might save a few bucks. Sleeping with my window open, when I woke, I turtled as the air was so frisky, I cringed watching my breath escape me.
Consequently, these days it’s not only about the weather that directly impacts our lives, it’s the environment in which we all interact that determines the quality of life we lead. Unfortunately, in our Western society, the quality of life is better with more money one has. The gap between rich and poor is widening as the so-called middle class is starting to struggle to meet their family needs. Inflation is taking its toll.
In a world based on consumption and keeping up with the Joneses, the accumulation of debt continues to become an albatross to the family unit. Just imagine what would happen if we were all on the same playing field. There would be absolutely no incentive to strive to accomplish, invent or succeed in anything that matters. We would live in a world empty of emotions, living to work, rather than working to live. People would technically become robotic in their daily lives without incentive.
In the money business, it is the reaction to data and information which provides direction to currency. The USD, being the World benchmark currency for Global Trade Settlement, is coming under pressure from competing entities, namely the BRICS nations (mentioned in previous writing). There are more countries signing on, over the concern that the Federal Reserve would control other Nations’ autonomy. It is the pending digitization of payments and the potential demise of the USD that is responsible for a shift as countries like Mexico and Saudi Arabia request applications to join. The USD is only backed by the Government’s promise to pay and if they need money, it is simply printed. As a result, when there is an excess of any commodity, the prices tend to gravitate downward losing not only value but confidence. The shock to our way of life could be extreme and Canadians would also feel the brunt when 90% of trade is with the United States.
In England, they are effectively eliminating cash, Banknotes which are legal tender and are not being accepted by participating entities, it’s insanity. In India, they eliminated the most common Banknotes from the poorest of the poor, now they get direct payments to their individual accounts on phones. You might think to yourself, this is efficient and will stop fraud but one needs to understand their real motive. It’s about government control by taking away an individual’s autonomy by tracking your every move and expense they will make. Isn’t it funny how easily a system which was frowned upon as the Chinese Social Credit System could become a reality in the Western World of what we perceive as democracy?
In the United States, Housing Starts fell <0.8%> and Building Permits in March were down a whopping <8.8%>. On the other hand, CPI or Consumer Price Index in Canada declined as expected to 4.3% vs (5.2%) annualized in March. The question needed to be asked is whether the result is a true reflection of reality. Is the data truly encompassing the spectrum of what matters to the majority of actual people or a manipulated number to confirm that the policies in place are actually working? As I said before, only trust your Mother!
As the markets anticipate the 0.25% increase to come in May, it continues to feel as if we walk in sludge every day. There isn’t a more euphoric feeling than winning, which is why the betting apps in Sports betting are booming. Everyone wants to win, but how many need to lose in the process? In my opinion, those Professional athletes that are role models are sending the wrong message to the children that idolize them. Instead, they look to take the easy road rather than put in the effort to work toward success. My Father always said, nothing ever comes easy in life, you always need to work in order to eat.
Even though the markets are a little stagnant, Precious Metals continue to rise. Gold recaptures the USD$2000/oz level while Silver remains in the USD$25/oz range. Consequently, Oil on the other hand slips toward the $77/B level from the recent $83/B level sending them Cad$ toward the 0.74 cent level despite overall USD weakness.
The divergence in the price of Oil is two-fold:
1) The interest rate cycle can be coming to an end because the economy has slowed down and another Fed hike of (0.25%) in May will confirm it.
2) The potential that interest rates remain flat or even start to fall in the 2nd half of the year because they finally acknowledge that we are in a full-blown recession. Nonetheless, what goes up must come down, I have said many times before that the markets are never a straight line and the USD strength is a function of words rather than substance.
I think I love you!