Good morning,
The summer is flying by as we head toward the stretch run of beautiful weather, at least in this hemisphere. The lack of water has put a kink in some of the crops yet they have flourished nicely. Personally, I have done more this year than in previous years simply because I wanted to learn how to continue the traditions of growing wholesome foods. Preservation will be the next challenge in the learning curve that will provide the reward in midwinter when the bone-chilling cold grips us all.
Speaking of preservation, the economies of the world are experiencing hyper-inflation to the point whereby the cost of living is severely being impacted. Shortages of products have resulted mainly due to the fact that materials for the means of production have been difficult to attain or the cost of production has made it virtually impossible to sell.
The Central Bankers are the gatekeepers of the economy and the motions they put in place dictating to the rest of us the eventual decisions we make. Excess printing of money combined with massive Government spending has been the primary reason economies are in the predicament we are in today. With little or no accountability nor transparency, people have handed the responsibility for our well-being to individuals that basically have zero qualifications to manage. Any person can run to become an elected official but in the end, they control expenditures of billions with their hands tied by the very powerful people in positions of authority. Money is Power!
Nonetheless, there was a lot of anticipation with respect to the Fed Minutes. This is a regurgitation of the meeting and discussion that these people had with respect to the decisions forthcoming. Traditionally, the hyper-inflation we are experiencing today will be fought with an aggressive approach toward increasing interest rates. An analogy that best describes this, is that of slamming on the breaks of a car to avoid causing more damage. Yet there are always pros and cons to all actions. In the case of the Federal Reserve, their continued aggressive approach will call for a rise of another 0.75% increase in interest rates. Anything less could see the markets become bullish, and if greater, the party will be over!
Consequently, the recent economic numbers might suggest a smaller increase is in the cards after Retail Sales and Housing Starts were worse than anticipated. The impact of higher rates will have reverberations in people’s daily lives while a person’s quality of life could be altered significantly. The Fed’s most pressing concern is to keep the equity markets buoyant while the casino for the money makers continues unabated while the sheep (the common person) remains hopeful.
Nonetheless, this morning the Central Bank of Turkey in a country experiencing inflation at 80%, correct, not a typo, the Central Bank took a different approach and actually lowered interest rates by 1% to (13% from 14%). This in turn has caused the Lira to implode. The country’s USD Reserves are almost depleted by having to prop up the currency on the global stage. No more gold in the coffers? Could this be the result and start of currencies imploding as a means of ushering in a new monetary system? Never say never be aware.
The USD Index resumes its’ upward trajectory above the 107.0 level as USD strength could continue for the foreseeable future. As a result, currencies could come under pressure and Precious Metals give back their recent gains. Gold is presently below the $1760($1800) level and Silver has dipped below the $20/oz($21) level. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar slips below the 0.7750 cent level and is mainly a function of USD strength or weakness with some correlation related to Oil. Just wait until they focus on deficits that have been completely ignored for some strange reason. Lastly, Home Sales decline 5% in America as USA Initial Jobless Claims improve substantially to 250k from expected (265k). The Philly Fed Mfg Index rises to 6.2 in August expected <-5.0>. Anticipation isn’t only about waiting for your ketchup to come out of the bottle, September is around the corner and fireworks are to come.
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